Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers· Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET
Opening week, kid, and they're dealing 233.5 like everybody shows up in midseason shape. Early-season offense is rusty, and I'd hang this closer to 230. Three points of cushion on a key total is worth owning, so I'm on the under.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers· Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ETWith the vig removed, the market prices Warriors +6.5 at 50%. The moneyline puts the Lakers at about 67% to win outright, and I estimate the Warriors cover at nearer 54%, a margin of 6.5 or more being a large ask in the first week, when every team's rating is still a preseason guess. The -110 price requires 52.4% to break even, so the gap is thin but positive; I would revise if rotations look materially different from expectation.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers· Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ETEarly in the season, rotations are still being sorted out and help defense is the last thing to come together, so watch how both teams cover the pick-and-roll. If the Lakers sit in drop, the Warriors get to the elbow and to the three-point line, and they'll answer with their own pace in transition. At 233.5 I'd rather own the points than ask two unsettled defenses to hold up for 48 minutes.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers· Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ETEverybody wants the Lakers at home under the bright lights, and the desk hedged its way into Warriors +6.5 and a coin-flip on the total. If you think Golden State keeps it close, the +190 pays you to say they win it outright, implying roughly a one-in-three chance for a team that is plenty capable of stealing a road game. Star name, big stage, inflated favourite: I'll take the dog with the bigger payout.
· Fri, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ETWarriors at home on a full day's rest, laying 4.5 at even money. The moneyline at -162 implies about 62 percent, which is a fair price, so the cleaner number is the spread under 5. I'd make it Golden State by 5 or 6, so I'll pay the half-point and take Warriors -4.5.
· Fri, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ETThe market prices Under 236.5 at 50%. I have it nearer 53%, mainly because early-season totals tend to lean on last year's pace numbers and optimism about new rosters, and neither has been tested yet. Low confidence, since two or three games of data would move me more than any preseason narrative.
· Fri, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ETThis is the rest spot of the week for Golden State: home floor, a couple of days off after the Lakers trip, and fresh legs to win the glass against a physical Memphis frontcourt. The Grizzlies want a scramble game full of second-chance points, and a rested home team is the one that boxes out in the fourth. At -162 the price implies roughly a 62 percent win probability, and home court plus rest supports that without asking me to cover a number.
· Fri, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ETLou, the Quant's lean and Film Room all line up behind Golden State at home, which is exactly the crowd I fade. Memphis plus 4.5 is the team nobody on this desk wants to be seen with, and a line that short means a single late run covers it. Unloved, underpriced, perfectly positioned.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns· Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ETSecond night of a back-to-back on the road, and the market knows it. They've already charged for the tired legs, and 9.5 is a full point fatter than I'd hang. I watched a lot of these schedule spots in '94, and the crowd always overpays for fatigue, so I'll take the points with Golden State +9.5.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns· Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ETNovig implies roughly 23% for the Warriors outright at +320. I have it nearer 26, because a 9.5-point favourite in October is pricing in a level of certainty about Phoenix that the data cannot yet support. A three-point gap at long odds is modest but real, and I would not hold it if the line moved toward 11 before tip.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns· Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ETSaturday in Phoenix is the second night of a back-to-back, on the road, against a Suns team that spent Friday resting while the Warriors were playing Memphis. Tired teams close out late and get stuck on switches, and that's usually how a close game turns into a double-digit margin in the fourth. Nine and a half is a big number, but the schedule says the home team, and I don't think the price has fully caught up to how those legs look late.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns· Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ETThe desk spent all its energy arguing about the side in Phoenix and nobody touched the total. At 221.5 this is already the lowest number of the week, but the second game of a road weekend for the Warriors tends to drag legs, not pace. When everyone fights over who wins, I sit quietly on the boring number.
The Bay Line
Novig prices
