Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Spread

Golden State Warriors +4.5

-108

Moneyline says roughly 39 percent on the Warriors, which prices out near a 4-point game. I'm getting 4.5 at -108 while the other side is laying 3.5 at -112, so the extra half-point is landing on my side of the split. Dubs are 1-3 and the Porzingis talk is only reports, but I don't care who's cold, I care what it costs. Take the points.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Over 227.5

-102

Over 227.5 at -102 against an under that needs 228.5 at -110. That's a full point and eight cents of difference on the same total, and that's money, kid. I'm not projecting a shootout, I'm buying the cheaper side of the market. Over.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Made threes

Stephen Curry over 3.5 threes

-102

Curry over 3.5 made threes at -102, under at the same price. That's about as thin a margin as you'll see on a prop. At near coin-flip money I'll side with the shooter at a number that sits right on his line, and I watched people fade that man cheap back when the price was worse. Over, at a fair cost.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Spread

Golden State Warriors +4.5

-108

The moneyline implies about 61% for Minnesota after removing the margin. That sits closer to a three-and-a-half-point favourite than four and a half, so Warriors +4.5 at a 51.9% break-even should cover nearer 54% in my estimate. The gap is modest and four games is not a sample, but an extra point on a likely key number is the kind of edge I will hold.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Under 228.5

-110

The under at 228.5 needs 52.4% to break even, and I have it close to 54% given the extra half point over the 227.5 line on the other side. Neither team's four-game scoring profile tells us much yet, so this is a small, number-driven position rather than a view on pace. If the total moves above 230, the value is gone.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Rebounds

Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds

-108

The two-sided price on Gobert over 11.5 rebounds implies a fair probability of roughly 51%, and I have it nearer 54% against a 1-3 opponent whose frontcourt situation is uncertain in the headlines. The Porzingis reports are just that, reports, and I am not leaning on them heavily. A three-point gap is thin, so confidence is low to moderate.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

-112

Minnesota is 3-1 at home against a 1-3 Golden State group whose headlines are about Curry and Draymond weighing the end of their partnership and Porzingis reportedly never suiting up. That leaves the Warriors thin up front against Gobert, and the Wolves should own the glass and the second-chance points. The desk is on the Warriors plus the points, but I want the home side at -3.5 for -112 because the tape and the records point the same way.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Under 228.5

-110

If Gobert controls the paint and Minnesota guards the pick-and-roll at home, the Warriors get pushed into late-clock jumpers instead of transition looks. Fewer clean possessions for a struggling road offense makes 228.5 a high number to clear. I'll take the Under at -110, priced close to a coin flip, with the game-flow edge on my side.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Points

Stephen Curry under 23.5 points

-105

Expect Jaden McDaniels to pick up Curry, with his length on Steph full court and Gobert waiting behind any switch. With the frontcourt reportedly short-handed, the defense can load up on Steph without paying for it inside. At -105, the under at 23.5 is a fair price for the hardest matchup he'll see all week.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Moneyline

Golden State Warriors to win

+153

Lou and the Quant both like Golden State, but only with four and a half points of padding, which is how you love a team you're embarrassed to be seen with. A 1-3 squad buried in contract drama and breakup headlines is exactly what the market prices like a corpse, and +153 says that's roughly a 40 percent shot I'm happy to own outright. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Over 227.5

-102

The Quant and Film Room both crowded into the Under, and when the numbers guy and the tape guy agree, I start looking for the exit. Taking 227.5 at -102 puts me on the cheaper side of a number the desk thinks is too high. Two smart people nodding at each other is not a thesis.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

Player pick · Rebounds

Rudy Gobert under 11.5 rebounds

+104

The Quant has Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds, because big man plus home team plus 3-1 record feels like free money to a spreadsheet. I'll take the other side at +104 and get paid plus money to fade the obvious. Everybody loves the tall guy on the glass, and that's exactly the problem.